Monday 17th May
What are their chances of succeeding?
That is the inevitable question that has to be asked at this point
in the expedition.
On the plus side, we can point to their excellent acclimatisation,
the high level of harmony within the group, the presence of other
expeditions along the route (which helps reduce the risks involved
if a man in difficulty has to be rescued), the fact that ropes have
been placed at the critical points of the climb, Alain Hubert's
fierce desire to add the honour of reaching all three poles to his
list of achievements, the whole team's physical and mental capabilities,
Alain's experience, of course, goes without saying, and above all,
the icy blast of caution that sprang up a few days ago with the
death of the Ukrainian climber who lost his life just a few hundred
metres from the summit.
On the minus side, we should mention the pharyngitis suffered
by Hubert is still in the recent past and despite the fact that
he claims to be in great shape, we don't know (and nor does he for
that matter) just how badly it may have affected his body (and in
the past few days when I have spoken to him on the telephone, I
can actually feel a breath of anxiety in this voice). Also, he still
has a cough, which means that we do not know what effect this cough
may have on the way his body will work once he reaches the daunting
'death zone'. What's more, the story of the ripped tent and the
food pilfered by the crows is more worrying than it seems. Alain
tells us that Joao and Pascal will go up a few hours ahead of him
and Manram, just in case⦠At that kind of altitude, a few hours
is not enough. Because if the weather suddenly deteriorates, they
may find themselves a very tightly packed foursome in that tent
- and we don't even know whether it can actually hold four men.
Finally, even if the weather allows them to make the final assault,
it has not been too good in recent days, and as scientifically-backed
as the weather forecast is, it cannot rely on just any old local
weather station, which naturally makes any forecast less reliable.
It is almost impossible to predict when a sudden storm might close
in on Everest. Having said that, since we have been relying on the
IRM weather institute for forecasts to help the Belgians in their
ascent - i.e. for about a week now - the forecasts provided by weatherman
David Dehenauw have been pretty accurate, with this additional encouraging
point: it would appear that when an area of low pressure hits the
mountains at this time of the year, the weather is worse at the
base camp than at high altitude.